The Arc of Emerging Technology: Patents Predict It
This session will look at how to use the patent as a tool for predicting the future; and it will explore how our patent system really works.
Sometime, perhaps 1000 years ago mankind unearthed an interactive virtual machine, an amplifier of ideas, a tool that would both preserve history, and project ideas into the future. John of Shiedame and the King of England used it in 1326 to spread the art of salt making to a country in need. Samuel Morse used it in 1847 when he taught the world to communicate via electromagnetism. Today we call this interactive virtual machine by the name “patent.” The concept is simple: teach something new, get a limited monopoly in exchange.
Many disparage the patent because of its sharp monopolistic teeth. Few realize however that the patent also traces the arc of technology, if you learn how to look. Disruptive innovations occur when disparate technologies collide. By tracing the arc left by these patent collisions, one can catch glimpses of the future.