People use the concept of "luck" to simplify and explain complex situations and uncertain outcomes. At the Central Intelligence Agency, we don't have that luxury. You may not either! The scope of the things we care about is staggering; we've had to develop new ways to approach massively complex situations. We use more data science than ever before to define normal and to find signals among a lot of noise. On the other end of the spectrum, we're finding more success as we cultivate human connections and relationships to guide our innovation investments. In this presentation, we'll tell cool spy stories, we'll share some of our techniques for tackling the uncertainties we encounter, and you'll walk away with methods to wrangle your own unknowns.